Retail + DTC, Risks & ‘Worse’ but Better


You want practical? Here comes practical …

📊 The Spotlight

Cody Plofker’s creative-testing formula.

📱 The Operation

Matt Bertulli’s retail-from-DTC opportunity.

💰 The Resource

Connor MacDonald’s worse-but-better calculator.

😬 The Addendum

Mike Beckham’s disaster-prevention tactics.


Along with this week’s trending news + a special call for contributors at the end.

THE SPOTLIGHT

Cody Plofker

How Jones Road Beauty Perfected Our Creative-Control Testing Formula

At our scale and size, we need a high volume of creative. To analyze what’s working + prioritize tests, we use Motion.

Recently, I wanted to see if we could invest more budget into influencer ads.

I created a Comparative Analysis report in Motion to bucket influencer ads against our control metrics.

Control Group

  • 30 days
  • 219 video ads
  • $995k in media spend

Influencer Group

  • 30 days
  • 20 video ads
  • $80k in media spend

In other words, less than 10% of our total spend.

Overall, influencer ads beat the control for:

  • Thumb-stop rate: 39% vs. 25%
  • A very long hold rate: 17% vs. 5%
  • Less expensive traffic: CPC & CPM
So clearly, something is working here!

We just published a case study if you want to learn more about our testing process.

THE OPERATION

Matt Betrulli

We’re working on a pretty significant retail partnership for Pela Case right now.

I’ve mentioned this on the show before, but one thing that makes Pela Case super unique in our category — phone cases and accessories — is our domestic manufacturing.

To facilitate on-demand production, we have spent years building up our local …

  • Facilities
  • Software
  • Systems
Turns out, this is an incredibly attractive value proposition to many retail partners.

Why? Because we’ve historically been “blocked” out of the in-store mobile accessories space.

Pela Case has been a pure ecommerce brand. We sell on our site and nowhere else.

This means we’re trying to digest an entirely new distribution model, but not in the usual buy-sell relationship that brands have with retailers.

We’re actually tightly integrating with a large retailer so that they can tap into our manufacturing platform.

This allows customers to …

Choose (1) generic products in physical retail and then (2) follow up with a digital experience.

The same customer can select from a huge catalog of designs and personalization post-purchase.

If you’ve ever expanded beyond DTC, this is a big change to manage.

It’s almost as if we’re not selling them a product.

Instead, we’re selling them a service … that simply has our product as part of the consumer experience.

Our team is being challenged to stand this up in a relatively short six months from start to go-live date.

Top of mind for us are at least four questions.

  1. How does this impact cash flows compared to our DTC channels?
  2. Can our manufacturing facility handle the increased volume?
  3. Is there channel conflict with DTC that we need to get ahead of?
  4. How will we service the consumer in a way that the retailer & Pela both expect?

Expanding channels is stressful — especially with this size of opportunity.

As with anything retail, you want to ensure near-perfect execution so that the partnership can expand beyond the initial launch.

I’m excited to see this project come to life. It could fundamentally shift this business.

THE FEED

Special Guest Episode with the Founder & CEO of Flexport, Ryan Petersen

The Sweepstakes Tactics to Create Tentpole Moments

THE RESOURCE

Connor MacDonald

How to Make Money With Worse Results

Over my eight years at Ridge, we’ve had one consistent belief: Results get worse over time.

It could be rising costs, saturating audiences, iOS 14 kneecapping Facebook performance, or maybe just a healthy dose of pessimism.

To help you calculate how much money you can make at how bad of results …

Here’s a spreadsheet calculator + a Loom walkthrough (excuse my dog snoring in the background).

THE ADDENDUM

Mike Beckham

From E065: Capital, Investment & Politics


In a recent episode, I asked the question …

At what point in a business’s life cycle should you start investing money in mitigating risk?

We were discussing supply-chain risk.

The conversation centered around how big you need to be in order to build your own domestic manufacturing.

It’s easy to talk about the justification for a business like Hexclad investing in manufacturing.

But we missed an opportunity to discuss something that is really important to every business owner.

If I could do it over again, I would push us to talk about more than just manufacturing.

I would ask what are the ways that businesses should invest money in risk mitigation when they are much smaller.

What are the most effective ways to invest money in insurance and risk mitigation?

This is an intensely practical area.

And yet, rarely talked about.

For a small business, it can be deadly.

Here are a few examples of ways you can invest in disaster prevention.

Hire enough team members to cross-train.

Redundancy costs money and time, but every company goes through a stretch where a key team member leaves or is temporarily sidelined.

What happens if you lose a key contributor and no one else has the institutional knowledge they held?

Create a good operating agreement.

We used Legal Zoom to do our original documents. Eventually, you should pony up for a lawyer to go through the process with you. It will help you to think through uncomfortable questions and increase alignment.

I cannot tell you how many horror stories I’ve heard that originate with poorly written or unclear operating agreements.

Buy life insurance and recall insurance.

As your company grows in value, so do the tax consequences if an owner dies untimely. Nothing fun about this one. At some point, you need to do it.

The same goes for recall insurance. For example, I know of a business that will be going through bankruptcy because they didn’t have recall insurance. Speaking of which …

Spend more on QA and testing.

The biggest threat to most consumer businesses is a lawsuit or a recall. Dealing with a problem once a bad product has shipped to customers is 1000x more expensive than catching it in the cradle.

We once shipped a million water bottles with a bad valve. We caught it early enough that very few customers received them. Still, it required a three-month rework by hand that took thousands of hours.

Of course, this isn’t an exhaustive list.

There are many things that don’t drive revenue but become necessary as your business grows to protect the value that you’re creating.

The hard part is judging when the time is right to apply them to your company.

THE TRENDS

This week’s top-five trending news stories, curated by the editor of CPG Wire

1. Kat Cole Takes Over at AG1: Bloomberg

Kat Cole is succeeding Chris Ashenden as CEO of AG1, the green drinks brand that expects to generate well over $600M in revenue this year. Prior to AG1, Kat Cole was President and COO at Focus Brands — the owner of Auntie Anne’s, Cinnabon, and Jamba.

2. Summer Fridays Scores Investment from TSG: WWD

TSG Consumer Partners made a strategic growth investment in Summer Fridays, a clean, California-inspired beauty brand that launched in 2018. According to WWD, TSG now owns a majority interest in the brand. Prelude Growth Partners exited their investment as part of the transaction.

3. L Catterton Submits Acquisition Offer for Toymaker: Reuters

The consumer-focused private equity giant is reportedly trying to buy Mattel, the toymaker behind Barbie, Hot Wheels, and American Girl. Mattel posted revenue of $5.4B in 2023 and currently has a market cap of $6.6B. Now that L Catterton is in the mix, expect other private equity firms and competitors (like Hasbro) to submit buyout bids.

4. Jake Paul’s W Raises $11M in Series A Funding: WSJ

W, the personal care brand founded by Jake Paul, raised $11M from the likes of Shrug Capital, 305 Ventures, Quiet Capital, and others. The brand launched earlier this year and is on pace to exceed $50M in sales.

5. Kroger and Albertsons Pause $25B Merger: Reuters

The Kroger-Albertsons mega-merger is on ice due to pressure from the FTC and a District Judge in Colorado. The $25B deal was announced in late 2022 but has been waylaid by state and federal authorities.

Interestingly, Walmart owns roughly 18% of the grocery market by total dollars spent, while a combined Kroger-Albertsons would only own 13.5%.


Coming soon …

We’ve lined up some outstanding guest contributors, starting with two past guests of the Operators Podcast:

  • Sarah Carusona: Fractional Head of Growth at Alpha Lion; previously Dir. of Ecommerce at OluKai
  • Cherene Aubert: VP of Digital & Ecommerce at ILIA Beauty; previously VP of Growth at Bobbi
Want to contribute also?

Hit reply to let us know (1) your topic + (2) your expertise. Our executive editor, Aaron Orendorff, will reach out if it’s a fit.

As always, operators only.

Until next time,
The Operators

PS: Special thanks to Motion for backing us as a sponsor even before day one.


Operators Newsletter

Get weekly guidance from the world’s greatest nine-figure executives, ecommerce marketers, and DTC-content creators. The minds behind Ridge, HexClad, Simple Modern, Lomi, Pela Case, Jones Road Beauty & more — curated by Aaron Orendorff.

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