Are you chasing the wrong numbers?

Top-line numbers. Growth-at-all-costs numbers. Someone else's (wait for it) … nine-figure numbers.

👜 MacCoy Merkley shares a warning + 3 truths to guide you

📊 Mike Beckham on what works when your numbers don’t

🗞️ Five biggest headlines from this week in consumer news

MacCoy Merkley CMO, Portland Leather Goods

The Dangerous Obsession with Nine-Figures + Three Truths to Guide You

In December, Portland Leather Goods finished its second consecutive year doing over $100 million in revenue.

It’s a milestone we’re proud of. While we did a little happy dance at HQ, here’s something most people need to know …

Revenue milestones don’t mean as much as you think they do.

They’re markers, not the destination — terrible reference points even for brands in the same category.

Still, $100M gets treated like the holy grail of ecommerce. Especially on DTC social.

This number’s been put on such a high pedestal, companies are kicking and screaming trying to break into a “cool kids club” that doesn’t even really exist.

Once you’re there? It’s more like a Chuck E. Cheese birthday party than some smoky Illuminati gathering in the woods.

Even more odd, 9-figures often gets more clout than 10. Because a billion? Feels too big. Too corporate. Too out of reach.

Here’s the thing …

Plenty of finance folks and founders are more qualified to unpack some of what I’m about to say. Maybe that’s the point.

Growth marketers like me aren’t always trained to care about what actually holds the business together.

Margins. Cash flow. Long-term health.

The stuff that matters.

I just celebrated 7 years with PLG. I’ve seen our business at every stage. Crushed the best quarters; survived some “WTF happened?!” moments.

We built ourselves a healthy, stable, profit-printing machine. And made a lot of mistakes along the way.

So, allow me to share three truths that I hope are helpful.

1. Revenue ≠ Health
2. Constrained ≠ Flawed
3. Sustainable ≠ Boring

 1. Revenue ≠ Health 

Growth at all costs breaks things.

When marketers go full “growth at all costs,” it’s easy to mistake momentum for success.

You’re scaling. Feeling great. Crushing it, right?

But behind the scenes …

• Duct-taped financials
• Cash flow is chaotic
• Bloated inventory
• Vanishing profits
• Margins are tanking

This is what happens when you fail to learn financial discipline and throttle Meta ads for sport.

When marketing leadership doesn’t understand what healthy looks like — and only focuses on ROAS + revenue?

You’re driving 200 MPH, all gas, no brakes.

Not every business should scale endlessly.

Every industry has different tolerances.

A SaaS company can burn money for years and still be considered successful. A bootstrapped DTC brand? Doesn’t have that luxury.

A brand selling a $300 serum might work with 20% margins. One hawking $30 totes? Not a chance.

• Different scales
• Different margins
• Different TAMs.

And yet …

We keep comparing ourselves to whoever’s loudest on LinkedIn.

We chase someone else’s revenue target.

Someone else’s margin profile.

Someone else’s game.

It’s the Keeping Up with the Joneses of modern entrepreneurship — except what you don’t see is the Joneses burning $5M a year and raising another round to cover it.

Meanwhile, you’re bleeding out trying to “catch up.”

That’s how brands break.

Not because they couldn’t scale. Because they scaled irresponsibly with no real goal.

 2. Constrained ≠ Flawed 

Here’s where it gets uncomfortable for founders in the chat.

When your ambition is sky-high, but your business model isn’t built to match.

Pretending otherwise could cost you years.

Years of grinding, comparing, overworking, and wondering why it feels so damn hard.

You’ll think you’re the problem …

It’s like trying to hit 200 MPH in a Toyota Tacoma.

Great truck. Not what it was built for.

Some products are made to scale. Some aren’t.

That’s not a flaw — it’s a feature.

Is $100M even on the map?

Let’s say you’re selling a high-margin product into a massive market. Sure, $100M might be doable.

But if you’re in a niche? Or working with low margins?

Chasing that number might not just be unrealistic — it might be destructive.

You’ll burn through cash.

Stretch your systems.

Drain your team.

For what? Because you picked a finish line that doesn’t make sense for the game you’re playing?

Be honest about your market.

And no more of this NONSENSE:

“My AuDiEnCe Is MaLeS aNd FeMaLeS aGe 18 tO 99.”

If you’re in a focused niche?

$20M might mean you’ve already dominated.

And $100M? Not even possible unless you pivot into new categories.

A skincare brand can do $100M and still be a minnow.

A niche apparel brand could own its entire category and cap out around $5M–$10M.

Different markets. Different ceilings.

In the US, only like 20 new tech companies hit $100M in revenue each year. That’s in one of the most profitable, scalable industries on the planet.

If you’re in physical products? Services? A regional brand?

Your path is going to look very different.

That’s okay. That’s how it should be.

I’ve met operators running $5M or $10M businesses with unhuman-like skill and discipline.

And I’ve seen $500M+ brands run by folks with half the brain cells, mainly because they were in the right-sized category.

It’s not better. It’s not worse.

Different vehicles. Navigating different traffic. On different roads to different outcomes.

 3. Sustainable ≠ Boring 

Let’s set the record straight …

Sustainable growth isn’t boring.

It’s not a compromise.

It’s not what you do when you lack ambition.

It’s what you build when you’re serious about the long game, when you’re thinking beyond next quarter.

You don’t need hyper-growth to win. You need healthy growth.

Growth that protects your margins, your sanity, and your team.

Particularly in consumer goods — where you have to make things, ship things across the world, market and sell those things, and mail things to a customer’s doorstep.

This stuff is hard.

I get it.

When you first start a business, speed is the strategy.

You move fast, capture as many sales as you can, and figure the rest out later.

But eventually?

You have to shift from valuing speed of motion → to valuing accuracy of motion.

Because at some point, you’ll have more to lose than gain from chaos.

You won’t be around forever.

Whether you exit, step back, or hand things off — the business needs to run without you.

That’s not optional. It’s inevitable

Winning isn’t a number. It’s building a stable, profit-producing asset that can survive! Or, be sold. Or, passed down.

Founding a successful company is rare.

Building one that lasts 100 years?

That’s unicorn-level.

And you don’t get there by chasing trends or farming Twitter screenshots.

You get there by building systems that work.

Margins that hold.

Teams that get stronger over time.

Zoom Out. Breathe. Keep Building.

If you’re leaving this newsletter feeling pessimistic, maybe give it a second read.

This isn’t about scaling back your ambitions.

It’s about recalibrating them around what truly matters.

Most of these lessons aren’t new.

But the noise of screenshots, groupthink, and endless comparisons can drown out hard-earned wisdom.

Here’s what matters most.

Step offline.

Learn from those who’ve done this before.

Take care of the incredible humans who run your business.

Celebrate progress over milestones.

Above all else, try to set aside comparing your numbers to others. Grow in a way that preserves your sanity as much as it does your cash flow.

The world needs your passion, your vision, your optimism.

I’ll see you out there …

Pushing, improving, moving forward.

MacCoy Merkley is the CMO of Portland Leather Goods, where he started in 2018 as the brand’s first “digital media specialist” after responding to a Craigslist ad. Before that, he was a wedding photographer with zero higher education in marketing.

Connect with MacCoy on X (Twitter) — for s*** posting — or LinkedIn — for the practical ecommerce stuff.

THE FEED

​Tips for Impending Doom​

​Meta’s Conversion Lift Testing, AI in Creative & Product Seeding for Scalable Growth​

​Turnarounds, Coty Deep Dive, Negative Cash Conversion Hype, Making Good Cuts, Debt Options & More​

 BONUS  The SMS Kingpin Alex Beller (Postscript)​

Mike Beckham CEO, Simple Modern

When Your Numbers Don’t Work, Here’s What Does

Right now, none of the numbers in our business work as a result of the trade war.

We bought about $80M from overseas partners last year. With the “current” (as of last week) duty and tariff rate of 110%, that would be an $80M tax bill. Despite having EBITDA margins in the twenties, we couldn’t pay half that bill under current pricing.

I believe new deals will be negotiated that allow our company to continue, but it is a period with a great deal of uncertainty.

1. Extend Your Inventory Runway

Any inventory already stateside has essentially doubled in value — that’s the replacement cost now.

This inventory is how we buy time.

To make it count, cut as much ad spend as possible. When you have limited inventory at a lower cost basis than you’re likely to ever see again, you want to get the highest contribution margin.

Pulling back on marketing is a defacto price increase without the permanence of an actual price increase — especially if you sell to mass retail where pricing changes are not dynamic.

Be willing to let sales decrease. Revenue is a vanity metric. If you have a hot seller, stop spending marketing on it. Five weeks of inventory coverage can go to ten or twenty.

For any inbound shipments still in transit, consider rerouting them to holding warehouses in Canada or Mexico. Place goods in bond and only bring in what you have to.

The tariff rate today might be the highest it is ever going to be, and you don’t want to be stuck with unprofitable goods if rates drop in the future.

2. Cut Operating Expenses

Look hard at every dollar of OpEx — every software subscription, every agreement.

What pays the bills is contribution profit. That becomes painfully obvious during periods like this. When you’re running at a two or three ROAS, you’re mostly investing in the future. Everybody needs to ring the absolute most out of every dollar today.

Be willing to make deep cuts rather than bleeding out slowly. I’ve seen that dripping out small cuts can be more painful, and your best people will start looking elsewhere if they are constantly wondering if this week is their turn.

Remember that debt can be leverage.

When dollars become more rare, owing money gives you negotiating power. This doesn’t mean you should try to harm good vendor relationships. Instead, recognize the reality that companies will be more willing to work with you on payment terms or discounts during uncertain times.

3. Simplify Your Business

We have to understand what things cost both in dollars and what they cost in terms of overhead.

For example, our manufacturing partner provides many services — hotels when we visit, thousands of samples per year — that are not explicitly charged but get rolled into our unit costs.

Be willing to say …

“Walk me through everything you spend money on that’s aggregating into my unit costs, and let’s cut it out.”

Consider shutting down underperforming markets, warehouses, or product lines. If you have 2,000 SKUs, your supply chain might be 10-15% more efficient with only 400. We need to review our P&L and make tough decisions about complexity that’s increasing costs without us realizing it.

This is a moment to examine our business with a first-principles mindset. We’re ten years in, and over that time, a lot of projects, processes, and complexity have accumulated.

The challenge is making these cuts without undermining investments that will be necessary when things normalize.

We had our Amazon account suspended four days before Black Friday. We had retail partners tell us during March 2020 that they couldn’t order from us because all their money was going to essential medical supplies.

Each time, I’ve experienced a mental and emotional crossroad.

And each time, I have made the decision to lean into my faith and double down on my values. I don’t know if my attitude changed the outcomes. But I know it changed me.

As I look back on difficult periods, I’ve realized how little I can actually control.

However, I do control my reaction. If you want to become a better leader, now is the time. If you want to level up your decision-making, now is the time. If you want to make your business more efficient or more focused, now is the time.

Periods of hardship have given me the most growth.

Your biggest asset isn’t your money or your career — it’s your character and who you are as a person. Going through tough times has made me realize that the number one way Simple Modern has enriched my life is by helping me grow toward the person I want to become.

How you frame your circumstances is powerful.

You won’t remember your profit margin. You will remember how you reacted and how it changed you as a person.

2025 is not going the way I had planned. The adversity many business leaders are experiencing is an opportunity to become a better leader, to reorder priorities, and to become the best version of yourself.

The Trends

Curated by the editor of CPG Wire, this week’s five biggest headlines in consumer news — it’s not all doom + gloom.

1. Grüns Valuation Surges To Around $500M: Twitter​

Fast-growing supplement brand Grüns raised fresh equity funding, and the company’s valuation surged to around $500M. According to the SEC filing, Grüns raised $9.9M from the likes of Headline and Selva Ventures.

The company, founded by Chad Janis in 2023, reportedly has $100M in ARR — a remarkable feat for such a young brand.

2. BD-Capital is Buying Science in Sport: BSR​

Private equity firm BD-Capital submitted an £82M takeover offer for Science in Sport, a UK-based purveyor of performance nutrition products. In addition to Science in Sport, the company also operates another brand called PhD Nutrition.

The supplement category has been on a heater with Promix, Hiya Health, and Ancient Nutrition acquired in the past six months.

3. Culture Pop Soda Grabs $15M: SEC​

According to an SEC filing, better-for-you soda brand Culture Pop raised just over $15M in funding from Enlightened Hospitality Investments and other investors. Tom First, the co-founder of Nantucket Nectars, launched Culture Pop in 2020.

The brand recently announced storewide distribution at Target and already retails at Albertsons, Walmart, Sprouts, as well as a number of other nationwide chains.

4. Cal-Maine Foods Acquires Echo Lake: Food Dive​

Cal-Maine Foods is shelling out $258M to acquire Echo Lake Foods, a producer of ready-to-egg products and other breakfast items. The acquisition will enable Cal-Maine Foods, the largest egg producer in the US, to expand its product offerings.

Lately, there’s been a ton of consolidation in the egg industry, both domestically and internationally.

5. Fruit Riot Partners with OLIPOP: Twitter​

Fruit and OLIPOP, two fast-growing brands in very different categories, joined forces to launch a co-branded product — Candy Crunch Cherries.

This is a big move for both brands. For OLIPOP, it’s their first time licensing their brand to another food or beverage company. For Fruit Riot, it’s their first non-sour flavor, which is telling about where the brand is going.

 Let me end with two requests … 

First, if Mike’s week-in and week-out transparency has been of help to you, please let us know!

Or better, consider sharing this week’s newsletter on social or directly with someone who could use it.

Second, if you’d like to contribute to an upcoming newsletter with the same breath, depth, and (hard-won) wisdom as MacCoy — I’m here for it.

Write back with your topic + expertise.

↑ As always, operators only.

With thanks and anticipation,
Aaron Orendorff 🤓 Executive Editor

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