We don’t have a crystal ball for 2026.

But we have the next best thing ...

💰 Connor Rolain reveals the easiest way to make more money without “big” goals

🥳 Cody Plofker shares 10 ecommerce predictions for 2026 and his 2025 scorecard

📈 Top 5 headlines from consumer (DTC) news with links and executive summaries

Plus, last call for a star-studded evening.

Connor Rolain Head of Growth, HexClad

The Easiest Way to Make More Money

Most brands cram Q1 with big goals.

Which is great. Just not at the sacrifice of easy money.

For example, the easiest money is optimizing high-intent buying moments — more margin from your existing funnel.

I’m talking about …

• Checkouts
• Post-purchase upsells
• Thank-you pages

This is simple to do with Aftersell by Rokt.

Ridge, Jones Road, and 40K+ other operators already rely on them to monetize checkout and improve AOV.

After installing it at Hexclad, we saw a 448% increase in post-purchase offer acceptance and six figures in incremental revenue from backend efficiency alone.

If you want to learn how they can help your brand, the first step is a free 30-min audit where they’ll uncover:

• Instant AOV lifts
• Broken sequences
• Hidden margin leaks

Then, they’ll give you the tactical roadmap to …

Cody Plofker CEO, Jones Road Beauty

10 Predictions for Ecommerce in 2026 & My ‘25 Scorecard

At the beginning of 2025, I made 15 predictions about what would happen in DTC over the next 12 months.

This year I’ve done the same.

Here are my …

• 10 Predictions
• 2025 Scorecard
• One Bullish Bonus

 10 2026 Predictions 

#1: Meta Goes Hard at New Customers

Meta already knows it’s too good at finding in-market buyers. Incremental attribution and broader Advantage+ targeting suggest it’s attempting to improve new customer reach.

Meta will get better at separating new and returning customers, and we’ll see dedicated solutions to prioritize acquisition over pure efficiency (some will actually work).

#2: TikTok Shop Goes Premium

TikTok Shop crushes thanks to native affiliates (i.e., “creators”), but it’s dominated by discount purchases.

In 2026, it will become more viable for premium brands — JRB might even get in on the action. Better late than never.

#3: Meta Swings Big at Social Commerce

TikTok Shop proved native, creator-led commerce works. Meta, on the other hand, wants social commerce, but it can’t risk undermining its core ads business.

Instead of forcing checkout on-platform, Meta will mirror TikTok’s playbook … but drive traffic directly to brand sites. Those who already use TTS will be best-positioned.

#4: Shopify Buys ShopMy

Shopify’s attempts to own customer acquisition haven’t landed. Shop Audiences failed, and while the Shop App is solid, it’s limited in reach and discovery.

Buying ShopMy is a simple solution that allows Shopify to move upstream into demand generation.

#5: AI Content Gets Really Good

AI content found its footing in 2025, but was still distinguishable from the real thing. Now we’re seeing AI outputs reach near-parity. My team is already producing hundreds of statics per day that are identical to non-AI.

Teams go deeper with AI — primarily to edit, design, and iterate existing assets at scale (more than generating net-new creative).

#6: Trust Collapses in the Feed

As AI slop continues to flood, consumer trust will plummet.

Super authentic, lo-fi content that cannot be faked becomes in vogue. Brands start live streaming. Anything that cannot be faked because it’s so real, unpolished, and human breaks through and gets engagement.

#7: AppLovin Cracks Prospecting

AppLovin already proved to be more than a flash in the pan. If it can turn non-skippable inventory into net-new customers, it can reach 8–10% of DTC’s media budget.

In 2026, AppLovin cracks the code on prospecting … and eats into Meta share.

#8: Organic Social Gets Attention

Historically, DTC has treated organic social as a “nice to have.”

With CAC inflation and creative fatigue, DTC brands will start taking organic seriously — as a proving ground for paid creative and a source of durable demand.

#9: Brand Tracking Grows

As ecommerce matures, brand tracking is the natural evolution from in-platform to MTA to GEO + MMM.

I believe it will become more popular for scaled DTC, informing spend, creative, and channel mix.

#10: Affiliates & Dropshipping Glow-Up

Both affiliate and dropshipping shed the stigma.

Shopify invests in partnership networks, apps like Aftersell find ways to cross-promote brands, and Meta implements affiliates into its platforms in a big way.

 My 2025 Scorecard 

I’ve made my predictions.

But you know what’s just as important as this year’s forecast?

Last year’s scorecard.

Here were my 15 predictions for 2025.

✅ AI Becomes Useful in DTC

2025 was the first year AI made a big difference for brands — automating CX and generating effective ad creative.

✅ Low OPEX Wins

Tariffs exposed bloated operations. Brands that shifted fixed headcount into variable costs gained an operating advantage.

🚫 RFK Bans Political Ads

My bet was that a political ad ban would unlock TV inventory and create an arbitrage opportunity. That did not happen.

✅ AppLovin Fades to ~5%

AppLovin stayed relevant, but the gold rush cooled. I predicted 5% of overall spend. Which appears right on brand-level data.

🚫 TikTok Force Sold

Right outcome, wrong buyer. TikTok did sell to American investors, but not to Amazon, Walmart, or Apple as predicted.

✅ Incrementality > Attribution

More brands embraced incrementality. Meta rolled out incremental attribution ... some X accounts even started using the term correctly.

🚫 Consumer Spending Rises

Consumer spend weakened through 2025, with only modest gains and uneven demand. My hoped-for rebound never materialized.

✅ Meta Fixes New Audience Targeting

Early in 2025, ~40% of our Meta spend leaked to repeat customers, with exclusions.

Today, 90%+ goes to new customers.

✅ Upper Funnel Becomes Best Practice

Haus helped quantify the incremental value of awareness. Upper-funnel strategies (particularly in-platform goals + upper-funnel channels) became standard for +8-figure brands.

🚫 Creative % of Spend Model Dies

Between margin pressure and AI, I thought brands would stop budgeting creative as a percentage of spend. That model held.

🚫 SaaS Consolidates

I expected more SaaS companies to become all-in-one platforms. If anything, we saw them unbundle.

✅ SaaS Variable Pricing Dies

Flat fees replaced variable pricing for many commoditized SaaS, which mostly survived where incrementality was provable.

✅ MOps Becomes #1 DTC Podcast

A stranger recognized me at a pool buffet in Florida and told me we’re his favorite podcast … mission accomplished.

🚫 Google Struggles

Google’s Demand Gen push didn’t backfire. Despite PMAX inconsistency and declining brand search spend, Google held up.

🚫 AI Kills UGC

AI reached the point where UGC-style ads can be produced at scale with near-human parity. But creator UGC isn’t dead yet.

 Bonus Forecast: Stronger Economy 

2026 will be better than 2024-2025.

GDP growth hit 4.3% recently — strongest it’s been in years. Inflation looks under control. Tariffs haven’t brought the inflation spike most people expected …

I expect rates to go down and consumer confidence to go up.

If that happens, everything accelerates:

• Platforms work better
• Creative converts faster
• Incrementality shows up sooner

Net-net, I’m bullish on 2026.

Agree or disagree with any of my predictions? Write back, and Aaron will make sure I argue with you on X.

THE FEED

​We Analyzed +1,000 Brands: 2025 Ecommerce Data with Northbeam’s CEO​

Get the full year-in-review, by-the-numbers report from Northbeam here … it’s glorious!

​Dropout to David Beckham’s Cofounder: Danny Yeung, CEO of IM8 (Operators Titans)​

​Our DTC 2026 Predictions & What 2025 Got Right & Wrong​

The Trends

Curated by the editor of CPG Wire, the five top stories in commerce and DTC.

1. New Primal Set to Eclipse $100M in 2026: LinkedIn​

New Primal, a clean-label meat snack company, is set to eclipse $100M in annual sales this year. The brand recently launched nationwide at Aldi in the United States, and will be in 15,000 retail doors by the end of Q1.

New Primal carved out its niche in a crowded category via Snack Mates, a line of meat sticks specifically designed for kids and families. The company is backed by Manna Tree, which recently exited Good Culture and Health-Ade.

2. Bansk Group Secures $1.45B: PR Newswire​

Consumer-focused investment firm Bansk Group secured $1.45B for its second fund. The firm was co-founded by Bart Becht, former Senior Partner & Chairman of JAB Holding Company, in 2019. Bansk Group now manages $5B in assets and includes BYOMA, Amika, Eva NYC, PetIQ, and several other brands.

3. The Good Crisp Company Exits: FoodBev​

The Good Crisp Company, a Boulder-based purveyor of better-for-you salty snacks, has been acquired by MPearlRock, a strategic partnership between MidOcean Partners and Kroger.

Matt Parry launched Good Crisp in 2015, which retails at 20,000 doors in the US, Canada, Australia, and the UK. Better-for-you food has been on a roll with Good Culture, LesserEvil Snacks, Simple Mills, and Siete all recently exiting.

4. PRIME Bets on Protein Shakes: Stack3d​

PRIME, the beleaguered beverage brand co-founded by Logan Paul and KSI, is expanding into the ready-to-drink protein shake category with three flavors. Each can delivers 32g of protein, 3g of sugar, and 150 calories.

Protein shakes ought to resonate with younger audiences, but the same could be said for its struggling energy drink line.

5. Cove Soda Expands Leadership Team: PR Newswire​

Fast-growing modern soda brand Cove Soda just appointed Bryan Crowley as CEO. Crowley recently served as the CEO of G FUEL and Casa Azul Spirits; prior to that, he co-founded Flying Embers Hard Kombucha.

Craig Olkiewicz, former SVP of Sales at Nutrabolt, also joined Cove Soda as Chief Commercial Officer. With its new leadership team and $15M in Series A funding, Cove is poised to take another leap forward in 2026.

 Last-Call Invite to Dinner in LA 

On Wednesday — yes, in just two days — Sean Frank, Jason Panzer, myself, and a small group of senior leaders from some of the most respected DTC brands are getting together for dinner.

It’s in Beverly Hills. Only three spots left.

Also, I’ll be in LA until Sunday for a star-studded week. If you want to hang out, holler at me on Twitter or LinkedIn.

But be sure to apply for the Wednesday dinner first!

With thanks and anticipation,
Aaron Orendorff 🤓 Executive Editor

PS (Disclaimer): Special thanks to Aftersell for sponsoring today’s newsletter.

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