You don’t need predictions.
As Q4 becomes Q5 and (very soon) Q1, you need hard-won lessons from 2024 + fresh strength for 2025.
Not theories. Not ”trends.“ Real tactics and strategies.
That’s our plan here at the newsletter. For the rest of Dec. and into the new year …
We’ll be sharing lessons from 2024 and our single most-important plans for 2025.
Straight from the Operators’ brands themselves.
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London Spilker
Sr. Growth Manager, HexClad
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2025 → Onward: “Micro” Creators
Bullish on Applovin Everyday Content Creators
Applovin has had its spotlight. It’s also been a huge success for us since launch. But what really gets me excited moving into 2025 is the massive opportunity in the creator marketplace and the foreseeable changes to its economy.
I’m not talking about your typical “micro-influencer” that charges $3,000 for one video or organic post + usage rights …
I mean a creator you only work with for paid-media-driven content + whitelisting and partnership ad access.
Over the last year, we’ve installed a micro-creator sprint process that specifically revolves around paid media.
I’ve heard from a handful of different agencies and brands that think creator content is going to continue to get more expensive. I think the opposite.
The leading indicator of my hypothesis is TikTok and AI — both will have a major impact on the content creator economy. Two completely different types of content, but both will light the fire when it comes to cost.
As of now, it’s not hard to find a quality creator that charges less than $1,000 for paid media content.
Fast forward six months, and I’ll bet my holiday bonus that the average will drop below $500. Not for entry-level creators who provide low-quality content …
I believe the quality is going to get better.
As more and more brands experience the power of whitelisting + TikTok shop affiliates, we’ll see a shift in UGC creators becoming more performance-aware and performance-driven.
I’ve already started to see this when it comes to our internal creators, often asking: “How are my ad(s) performing?”
Does this all sound too good to be true? Well, it is. Sort of.
The hardest part is post-production, which makes it so critical. Unfortunately, there’s no “quick fix” for this one yet.
You need someone who knows the ins and outs of direct-response and performance-first creative. Someone who can take five minutes of raw, un-cut, selfie-style content and turn it into your ad account’s top performer.
At the beginning of Q2, we did just that.
HexClad signed eight micro creators with an insanely low-lift brief …
Deliverables: 5 minutes of raw, uncut testimonial-style footage with lots of examples & OV (opening visual) guides based on VPs (value propositions).
Optional: 1-10 minutes of recipe or VP b-roll content (the optional b-roll helps us see who’s willing to go the extra mile).
The result?
Our micro-creator’s average performance surpassed our creative-testing average. At Hex’s scale, that’s massive.
Here’s our top-performing (and highest-spending) micro creator ad since we’ve launched this new sprint process. As you can probably tell, the asset was super low-lift.
While we scaled the same creative with a banner overlay + ad copy for the holidays, its evergreen version beat our account-wide average one-day-click (1DC) ROAS …
Even during the sale periods.
We’ve already started to build a warehouse of top-performing creators we can continue to work with on an ongoing basis. In 2025, we’re tripling down on them.
If you’re not yet scaling and improving your “everyday” creator output … you should be.
2024 → 2025: F***’d Up Data
5 Tips to Prevent Data Delusion & “Oh S***” Moments
As we head out of 2024, there’s one undeniable lesson we’ve all learned …
Your data is always trying to lie to you.
From manual inputs measuring MER to Motion reports evaluating creative, it’s easy to fall victim to deceptive data.
Here’s five hard-won tips to avoid f***’d-up data.
1️⃣ Lock-In & Lock-Down Your Naming Conventions
I can’t stress this enough. Naming conventions are a minefield. One little slip-up in how you name an ad can snowball into a year of messed-up data. Worse, bad decision making.
Add a second pair of eyes to check all new ad names before they go live. Make sure your naming conventions are spot-on from the jump. Trust me, it’ll save you time, money, and stress.
Want to upgrade your naming conventions? Make a copy our Sheet Template from HexClad.
Example Ad Name:
12.03_HEX#365_V2_Holiday-6PC-Pan-Stack_$_Orange-Tile_Lifestyle_6PC-Pan-Set_HiFi_GIF_Holiday-Sale-2024_Scale_Danielle_9x16_Brand-Page_BFCM-COL-6pc-pan
It’s not sexy. But it is foundational.
2️⃣ Troubleshoot Like Your Data is Lying, It Probably Is
Always assume your first pass is wrong. That’s how you catch the little things — misspellings, misclassifications, filter errors.
If you’re not actively questioning your data, you might be missing something important. Moral of the story …
After you’ve created a report template, schedule reminders to see if anything has changed that would have an impact. An extra five minutes could save you an extra $5,000 (or more).
Bonus Tip: Try to use auto-updating reporting filters like “product category contains” instead of “product SKU is.”
3️⃣ Go Deep on Validating Incremental Success
Oftentimes, when I hear things like “these are doing really well” or “we should scale this ad” something’s being overlooked.
With the naked eye, anything could be doing well, but the truth lies in the question:
“Doing well … compared to what?”
A very broad example of this is statics versus videos. You should never compare a static ad to a video control. Instead, stack filters in a platform like Motion to get as granular as possible.
Let’s say we recently scaled an evergreen Gordon Ramsay video and see that it’s performing well. Stacking filter for an apples-to-apples comparison …
Ad name contains “video”
✅ Videos only
Ad name contains “Gordon”
✅ Talent selection
Campaign name contains “prospecting”
✅ Removes MoF & BoF ads (ToF only)
Campaign name does not contain “sale”
🚫 Removes all sale campaigns
Ad name does not contain “sale”
🚫 Removes all sale ads
This will give you a true control group of …
- Video only
- Talent or creator specific
- Prospecting (ToF)
- Non-sale ads
However, only do this when you have a reasonable spend or data. If your dataset is too small, broaden your filters.
There’s a fine line between “too small” and “just enough.” It often takes at least $25-$50k in spend before we start using an aggregate control comparison due to high AOV and CAC.
The more granular you get, the more confident you’ll be in your decision-making.
4️⃣ Stay Grounded: Don’t Let Your Emotions Run the Report
This one is a classic.
Data doesn’t care about your feelings. It doesn’t care what you think it should say. You shouldn’t either.
I heard this on E21 of the Marketing Operators podcast with Shane Rostad about CRO:
Don’t go into a test with any preconceived notions. You’re setting yourself up for failure.
Walking into a test with a “hunch” promotes mistake-making, allowing you to easily disregard any potential discrepancies because you were happy to see it go your way.
Make sure your analysis is based on actual, clean data, not what you want to believe.
Having a hypothesis is fine, but blindly trusting data isn’t. Never turn off a test early — before hitting statistical significance — because the data shows a marginal gap between A/B.
5️⃣ If It Feels Too Good to Be True, (Yeah) It Probably Is
Time and time again, we’ve seen reports that look too good to be true, only to dig in to find something off.
Maybe a filter was missed, or certain SKUs were excluded from the aggregate report.
So here’s the deal …
When something looks too good to be true, hold off on celebrating.
Go back and double-check your inputs. The last thing you want is to make a bad decision based on f***’d-up data.
Data is your best friend and your worst enemy.
It’s powerful. But it’s also flawed.
By questioning everything, stacking filters, and keeping your biases in check, you can make better, more informed decisions that don’t cost you in the long run.
Cheers to a smarter, more skeptical 2025!
Editor’s Note: Want more London? I sure do. Let us know if you feel the same. And connect with him on Twitter (X) or LinkedIn.
Can You Ever Bet Against Zuck?
Is AppLovin Living Up to the Hype & How We’re Scaling Creative Partnerships
This week’s top-five trending news stories, curated by the editor of CPG Wire
1. Chomps Finishes 2024 With a Bang: Instagram
According to Numerator, Chomps is the fastest-growing food brand in the US, with impressive metrics to back that up. In 2024, Chomps sold over 525 million meat sticks, and gross revenue surged 105% year-over-year.
It also hit 181,000 points of distribution, a YoY increase of 77%. In 2025, Chomps will open a 300,000-square-foot manufacturing facility with Western Smokehouse Partners.
2. 3Z Brands Acquires Southerland: PR Newswire
3Z Brands, a vertically integrated purveyor of sleep products, acquired Nashville-based mattress manufacturer Southerland. Founded in 1893, Southerland operates four manufacturing facilities across the US. 3Z Brands currently owns Brooklyn Bedding, Helix Sleep, Leesa, and Birch — so Southerland is joining a robust portfolio of sleep brands.
3. McCormick Chases Sauer Brands: Yahoo Finance
McCormick (NYSE: MKC) is reportedly in talks to acquire Sauer Brands, the owner of Duke’s Mayo and Mateo’s Gourmet Salsa, for more than $1B. Sauer’s current owner, Falfurrias Capital Partners, acquired the business in 2019 for around $300M. Sauer Brands currently generates more than $120M in annual EBITDA, so Falfurrias is angling for a 10x exit.
McCormick is no stranger to big acquisitions, either. It acquired Cholula for $800M and, before that, purchased Reckitt Benckiser’s food division for $4.2B.
4. Puig Ups Stake in Charlotte Tilbury: Cosmetics Business
Puig, the Spanish beauty firm that went public earlier this year, announced that it will assume full ownership of Charlotte Tilbury by 2031. Puig acquired a majority stake at a valuation of £1.2B in 2020. The brand has since tripled net revenue.
Puig has been an aggressive acquirer lately. In addition to Charlotte Tilbury, they’ve also purchased Byredo, Kama Ayurveda, and Dr. Barbara Sturm.
5. Liquid Death Secures Debt Financing: ABL Advisor
After raising $67M in equity funding earlier this year, beverage juggernaut Liquid Death secured a credit facility worth $55M from Ares Commercial Finance.
Proceeds of the financing will be used to expand product assortment and distribution. Liquid Death has openly discussed the idea of an IPO; however — at this point — a strategic exit seems more plausible.
The Marketing Operators are ramping up for a year-ending MOperators Hotline!
We’ve collected a ton of questions (especially from the tool stack series) and passed them all over to get answers.
Have your own burning question?
Hit reply and let us know!
With thanks and anticipation,
Aaron Orendorff (Executive Editor)
PS: It’s going to be a very merry Christmas (or extra happy New Year) for a few of you meme’ing loyalists!
