You’re going to hate me for this, but we’re …

• 16 days from Q4
• 74 days from Black Friday
• <100 days from Xmas cut-offs

Thankfully, today’s newsletter is equal parts jump-start to your holiday planning and final checks on what you’re cooking.

🎁 Connor MacDonald with 25 (or something) Black Friday tips

💰 Cody Plofker adds 14 more tips to fill your funnel right now

🙌 Connor Rolain shares how you can create a “yes” ladder

📅 Mike Manheimer gives you a 60-day playbook + calendar

🤓 Aaron Orendorff (that’s me) asks you to be patient, please

Connor Rolain HexClad, Head of Growth

The Secret to Smarter Growth Before Black Friday

At HexClad, we’ve tried just about every way to grow LTV. Most of it either kills margin or takes 3 months to show up.

This “Yes Ladder” playbook is different.

The team at Aftersell and Simpli Scaled built a post-purchase funnel that feels like magic:

• Up to $200K/month
• At 82% margins
• Converting +12%

 … on thank you pages alone. 

We followed their framework and saw AOV lift without increasing CAC. The best part? Each upsell felt helpful, not pushy, because they’re built on what the customer already said yes to.

It’s not a gimmick. It’s sequencing.

We thought post-purchase was the end of the funnel.

Turns out, it’s where real profit starts.

If you’re still relying on email or subscriptions to drive LTV, this will make you rethink everything.

Connor MacDonald Ridge, CMO

25 (Or Something) Black Friday, Cyber Monday Tips

As Q4 hurtles toward us, I wanted to share a tactical checklist that I’ve refined at Ridge over the years.

These are the most distilled and actionable steps you can take starting right now … to load up and then drain your funnel.

Let’s get into it.

On Planning

☐ It’s important to create a plan.

☐ It’s more important to put your plan on a calendar that runs throughout Q4 and includes:

• Every email + SMS (send more)
• Product or variant drops
• Multiple holiday offers
• Bonus flash sales or incentives
• Existing customer exclusives
• High-to-low AOV for acquisition
• Channel-specific shipping cutoffs

☐ And it’s even more really important to be willing to change the plan when you’re not hitting targets.

On Paid Media

☐ Last year’s best-performing ads might also be this year’s best performers! Same with your evergreen winners.

Run them all, with and without your BFCM offers.

☐ Look at the delta between 1DC vs 30DC and how that changes by channel leading up to BFCM. The typical difference between 1–30 days is 40% — but it more than doubles in the weeks before Black Friday. Adjust channel targets down.

☐ Understand your MER targets throughout the month of Nov. to account for these more aggressive targets.

☐ Be wary of falling too far behind efficiency targets leading into BFCM. Know your lower limit. Pull back or adjust.

☐ Also look at how much 1-30 day delta changes during and after BFCM, then adjust ROAS goals — i.e., your ROAS target probably needs to be higher than usual.

☐ Drink water and stay hydrated.

☐ Check your spend caps on your Meta account. We had a year where we spent to the cap, and things just stopped. Our rep needed to do an emergency increase.

☐ Get a budget pacing sheet from your Google reps; it’s the one helpful thing they ever send you.

☐ Make sure you don’t cap Google spend on key brand and non-brand terms.

☐ Don’t bid on stupid searches like “black friday sale.” I once saw a brand spend ~$120k with essentially $0 return.

☐ Make sure to spend time with your friends and family, at least on Thanksgiving.

☐ Set up seasonal bid adjustments in Google to auto-account for the increase — even that is probably not enough if things are performing well. Be ready to increase more!

☐ For large budget increases, have clear expectations.

☐ Remember to retighten your targets during the weekend between BFCM. It’s really, really easy to overspend.

On Reporting

☐ Make sure to export hourly pacing from Shopify.

☐ Set up a form of reporting to see how you’re pacing hourly YoY for both spend and revenue.

☐ Northbeam often reports ROAS a few hours quicker than Google or Meta; we prefer that for intraday reporting.

☐ We usually meet as a team early on Black Friday (6am PST) and then every 2-3 hours after to adjust budgets.

☐ Having people overseas is helpful for this.

On Email & SMS

☐ Send more emails.

☐ Reactivate your unengaged subscribers before Black Friday with plain-text emails and offers.

☐ Send more plain-text emails.

☐ Send more SMS.

☐ Don’t send SMS on the hour.

☐ Choose some weird time, like 11:19am.

On Resources

☐ Ask Aaron to send you Connor Rolain’s Contribution Margin by MER Sheet; we use it every year to figure out how profitable we are at a range of marketing efficiencies.

MER = Total revenue / total spend

☐ Also ask him to make me update my own Holiday Sale for Uneven Revenue Pacing Sheet (he reads every response). If 15 of you tell him to tell me to make a 2025 version, I will do it.

☐ Last but not least … everyone should visit Ridge.com to take advantage of the great holiday deals!

Mike Manheimer CCO, Postscript

60-Day Roadmap to Holiday Success

No matter how much sleep brands lose over BFCM prep, there’s always a nagging feeling that they could do more.

Worse, some brands will overspend their way out of that feeling in the final moments:

• Last-minute discounts
• Rushed campaigns
• We have all been there

To fix that feeling for you this year, we put together the playbook of all playbooks.

It’s eight guides from the experts of each channel … SMS, checkout, loyalty, CX, influencers, and the works.

The strategies that top operators are using right now, all mapped to a 60-day calendar.

Cody Plofker CEO, Jones Road Beauty

How to Fill Your Funnel Right Now!

Inspired by Connor MacDonald’s epic 25 tips for Black Friday from last week’s Operators event, here are …

1. Shift media mix to “upper funnel” channels. Duh.

For us, that’s TV, OOH, more YouTube, and non-conversion objectives in Meta.

2. Carefully track CPMr and Net Rolling Reach on Meta.

Cost per 1k accounts reached (CPMr) and Rolling Reach measure how many unique people see your ads. Watch them like a hawk and make sure reach increases as spend increases.

3. Macro-level partnership ads.

Optimize based on performance + CPMr. Use diverse personas driving traffic to the most specific, ad-matching landing pages your team can logistically create.
​
​4. Prioritize testing upper funnel channels in your roadmap.

Now is not the time to test 1DC or 7DC. You have limited experimentation slots leading up to Q4. Try to prioritize video, YouTube, and reach tests to maximize awareness.
​
​5. Get aggressive with pacing schedules.

If your goal is a 4 MER, you likely want to run a lot hotter for most of the time leading up to it. Lower your target efficiency, but only after you know how it will ladder into end-of-year goals.
​
​6. Know your delayed revenue multiple.

If you use Northbeam, you can get this from different times of the year from historical years, as well as by channel.

For example, we see a much bigger 1 to 14 day multiplier from our Oct to early Nov spend. But BFCM spend has almost no multiplier past a one-day period.
​
​7. Build your email and SMS list.

We’re running ~20% of our Meta account on mid-funnel events; largely optimizing for a quiz completion (custom).
​
​8. Launch new channels.

We’re launching podcast ads this month and will run them for three months minimum.
​
​9. Set leading indicators.

To make sure your filling of the funnel is on track, establish baseline revenue, organic search sessions, direct and organic traffic, email sign-up, and brand lift metrics.
​
​10. Cross-pollinate between channels.

Especially social, email, and SMS. We will push our quiz and early access pages on social, push email subscribers to SMS, etc.
​
​11. Segment lists from owned channels.

We’ll ask subscribers to engage with content, and then put them in segments based on what they click.

Mike Manheimer from Postscript had a great idea to send an SMS asking about their shopping — who they’re shopping for, what they’re looking for, etc. — and use that to build segments.
​
​12. Mini event before the main event.

We always have a big moment in October (our anniversary), and we know we can spend extra to acquire customers then because there is more than a 30-day LTV of those cohorts.

That media will fill the funnel for November.
​
​13. Run “sale is coming” ads for a few days to a week prior to launch. Sales slow down a bit, but it can be worth it.
​
​14. Run brand partnerships or GWP (gifts with purchase) swaps around this time. Combine forces with complementary products that fit your demo or push you into new demos.

I know. 14 is a weird number.

If I missed your favorite funnel-filling-pre-holiday tip, let me know on X @codyplofker or write us back.

Maybe next time we can get these lists to 50 + get them all into one Google Doc for you!

THE FEED

​How to Get Your Brand AI Ready​

​The Untapped Potential of YouTube Ads: Strategy, Measurement & What Drives Results with Brett Curry​

The Trends

Curated by the editor of CPG Wire, this week’s five biggest consumer-news headlines.

1. Nutrabolt Doubles Down on Bloom Nutrition: Food Dive​

Nutrabolt just upped its stake in Bloom Nutrition by investing another $160M into the brand. Founded in 2019 by Mari Llewellyn and Greg LaVecchia, Bloom Nutrition is a female-focused purveyor of supplements and better-for-you beverages. The company expects sales to top $350M this year, up from just under $200M in 2024.

For Nutrabolt, which owns brands like C4 Energy and Cellucor, acquiring Bloom offers them a fast-growing wellness brand that also broadens their customer base.

2. Bansk Group Buys BYOMA: PR Newswire​

Consumer-focused investment firm Bansk Group has acquired a majority stake in BYOMA, one of the fastest-growing skincare brands in the world. BYOMA was developed by Future Beauty Labs, a Scottish brand incubator, and launched in 2022.

The company’s global retail sales will exceed $300M this year. Bansk Group’s other beauty investments include Amika, Eva NYC, and Ethique.

3. Feel Goods Closes Seed Round: Fitt Insider​

Los Angeles-based supplement brand Feel Goods closed a $4.7M seed funding round. The round was led by Cutting Horse, with participation from Adapt VC, SuperAngel, Air Ventures, and a handful of others.

Co-founded by Dustin Pourbaba and Brian Wong, Feel Goods specializes in gut, hydration, and immunity drink mixes.

4. Little Spoon Hits Major Milestone: Instagram​

Little Spoon, one of the top emerging brands in the baby & kids food category, will surpass $150M in net revenue this year. The company, founded in 2017 by Ben Lewis and Angela Vranich (and profitable since 2024), sells over 100 SKUs and has become a nine-figure brand without even tapping into the retail channel.

5. Celsius Appoints New CMO: Business Wire​

Celsius Holdings just appointed longtime beverage exec Rishi Daing as its new Chief Marketing Officer. Prior to joining Celsius, Daing held senior marketing roles at PepsiCo, Tata Consumer Products, and Mark Anthony Brands.

Daing spearheaded the launch of Mas+ by Messi while at Mark Anthony Brands. Celsius also appointed a new Chief Brand Officer as well as a Chief Creative Officer.

To all you lovely people throwing emails and DMs at me about last Friday’s epic Black Friday event …

In the meantime, please write back if you would like (1) Connor Rolain’s Contribution Margin by MER Sheet, or if you want (2) me to bother Connor MacDonald into updating his Holiday Sale Uneven Revenue Pacing Sheet for 2025.

Now that I am the boss of the Operators, they have to do everything I tell them!

With thanks and anticipation,
Aaron Orendorff 🤓
Chief Content Officer

Disclaimer: Special thanks to Aftersell and Postscript for sponsoring the newsletter.

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