The biggest killer of growing brands isn’t the obvious gaps. It’s the unknown unknowns.

That’s what today’s newsletter is all about …

🤓 Krishna Poda explains how to simulate + predict the impact of your decisions

🤔 Matt Bertulli shares 20 things he wishes he knew when he was starting

🥸 Derek Lauermann reveals 5 lessons from products launched for April Fools

Plus, an inventory Sheet template (by popular demand) and the top-5 headlines in consumer.

Krishna Poda Founder, Saras Analytics

If CAC Jumps 30% Tomorrow, What Happens to Your P&L?

Every number in your business is touching another one …

• CAC shifts P&L
• Discount rate changes LTV
• Fulfillment costs move margin
• Channel mix affects payback
• AOV impacts COGS
• Volume spikes absorb cash

These variables move together. And the downstream effects of top-line decisions you make are often impossible to predict.

Not only can AI help you make sense of your real-time data, it can simulate and extrapolate different scenarios and map how those variables interact.

That’s what we’ve built at Saras Analytics.

When CAC rises while discounts are cut, what’s the net effect on new customer LTV? When fulfillment spikes in Q4, which channel mix absorbs it best? When AOV drops and COGS holds, where does the margin floor land?

These questions were impossible to answer.

Brands like Ridge, Momentous, True Classic, and AG1 already trust Saras with the numbers behind their business.

Click the button below, answer a few questions, and let’s chat about how we can help you see around corners.

Matt Bertulli CEO, Pela + Lomi

20 Things I Wish I Knew 20 Years Ago

I started my first company when I was too young to know how dumb I was. Two decades later, I’ve …

• Raised over $50M
• Run a 100+ person team
• Built and sold companies
• Almost went bankrupt twice

Here’s the stuff I wish someone had told me at the beginning.

1. Cash is Oxygen (Not Profit)

I’ve watched many profitable companies die during rapid expansion because they ran out of cash. It’s called overtrading, and it’s way more common than you think.

Build a 13-week cash flow forecast. Update it weekly. This habit has saved me more times than I can count.

2. It Doesn’t Get Easier

The problems at $500K feel massive. Then you hit $2M, and those new problems feel just as impossible.

Same thing happens at $10M, $30M, $100M. Every stage feels insurmountable until it isn’t.

3. Your 1st Product Should be a Copy

Not a cheap knockoff; a really good version of something that already exists and sells. You can use that success to fund your bigger swings later.

Even Yeti didn’t invent coolers. Lululemon didn’t invent leggings. They just made better versions for specific customers.

4. Learn to Write

Writing is a CEO’s highest-leverage skill. It clears mental fog, connects the dots, and turns jumbled ideas into something actionable.

I write for 60-90 minutes every morning. Non-negotiable.

The founder who writes every day for five years will absolutely destroy the founder who doesn’t.

5. All Marketing Should Print

Brand vs. performance is a false choice.

Also, ROAS is the junk food of marketing metrics. Tasty. Addictive. Dangerous if you rely on it.

6. Paid Media is Gasoline

But you still need fire.

Build something worth amplifying, then put ad dollars behind it. The best ads we ever ran started as great organic posts (never the other way around).

7. Hire Slow. Fire Fast.

Everyone says it. Nobody does it. The people who got you here won’t always get you there.

That’s not a failure on their part. Your business is probably unrecognizable from the one they joined.

You don’t need someone better when a great person leaves. You need someone different … because your business is different.

8. At Every 2x, Something Breaks

People. Processes. Capital structure. Usually all three.

Your job isn’t to prevent it, it’s to rebuild faster each time.

9. Consistency Beats Genius

You don’t have to be brilliant. You have to show up. The same boring stuff. Day after day. Year after year.

Success is mostly not giving up. (Read that again!)

10. Attack Problems, Not People

This one rule transformed how I handle conflict. Co-founders. Employees. Vendors. Even myself.

The fastest way to destroy a relationship is to make the issue personal. Keep the issue, the issue.

11. Strong Positions, Loosely Held

Have conviction in your ideas, but be flexible enough to change when new information shows up.

The best founders I know are stubborn about vision and flexible about tactics.

12. Hard Work < Bad Strategy

There is no amount of hard work that can overcome bad strategy. You can’t …

• Outwork it
• Outsmart it
• Or build around it

We did this at Pela when our design inventory started piling up. Completely rebuilt our manufacturing model.

Painful + necessary. Now it works beautifully.

13. The Market Doesn’t Care

It doesn’t care how hard you worked. How late you stayed up. How much you love your product.

It only cares about value. If you’re not delivering, it’ll move on.

14. Delegate or Die

Forget this “founder mode” stuff.

Learn to work through people. Become a leader. Build a small team of killers (not a big team of muppets).

15. Your Network is Your Net Worth

My first company sold because of a random relationship I built on a plane between New York and Toronto.

Always be connecting. Relationships won’t show up on your balance sheet, until one day they do.

16. It’s Lonely

You will have people around you constantly and still feel alone.

Nobody prepares you for the pressure of having other people’s livelihoods on your shoulders.

Find other founders. Build community.

17. Get Free Money When You Can

Get paid before you deliver.

• Pre-orders
• Deposits
• Subscriptions

Customers are the best source of free money.

We raised $7.5M in 45 days from our Lomi crowdfund. Zero equity given. Zero interest paid.

Your suppliers can give you free money, too. Long payment terms beat higher margins.

18. You Will Hit a “Why?” Wall

Somewhere around year 3-5, you’ll question everything. Should I shut it down? Is this worth it? Am I the right person?

This is normal and temporary. The founders who push through come out incredibly resilient.

19. Don’t Compare

Social media is everyone’s greatest hits album. Don’t compare your business to others’.

Behind the scenes, they’re just as sweaty and stressed as you.

20. Commit or Bust

If you’re not willing to work on it for a decade, don’t work on it for 10 minutes.

First-time founders ask, “How do I grow fast?”

The second question is better. Success is decade-long patience combined with daily impatience.

Many of these lessons I’ve had to learn multiple times.

That’s the game.

The best founders stay curious, stay humble, and keep showing up. The only way to lose is to stop.

Derek Lauermann Grüns, Dir. of Paid Media

Ad Snack 🍬 5 Brands That Turned Pranks into Products on April Fools Day

“April Fools” is supposed to be a joke. But this year, the products were real. So was the checkout button!

Here are five brands that launched real products …

1. OLIPOP x goodwipes

Last year, OLIPOP teased a fake Hidden Valley Ranch soda.

Comments begged for it to be real.

This year, they teased a Peaches & Cream collab with goodwipes, then revealed the product was real all along.

It launched at 4,000 Walmart locations with the slogan:

“Treat your butt as good as your gut.”

 Snack 🍬 

Unexpected collabs put your brand in front of a whole new audience and let you borrow trust that’s already been built.

2. Liquid I.V. x Grillo’s

Last year, Liquid I.V. teased a pickle flavor as a joke. The internet responded.

Fans flooded their DMs and comments to make it real. So Liquid I.V. partnered with Grillo’s and made it official.

Pickle-flavored hydration multiplier; 3x the electrolytes of the leading sports drink.

It sold out in one day.

 Snack 🍬 

When your customers speak, listen. Don’t let social comments be the sole responsibility of your social team. Bring their insights into marketing and even product.

3. OREO

Dill Pickle fudge on the outside. Classic Oreo on the inside.

• Small batch
• No retail
• April 1st only

 Snack 🍬 

If the product is weird enough, the exclusivity becomes the ad. Limited drops + just-for-fun concepts can create instant FOMO with loyal customers.

4. Ridge

Ridge teased, then launched the “Small Bulge Club.”

• Cheeky branding
• Innuendo-heavy copy
• Limited availability

All built around their core brand message: ditch the bulky wallet.

 Snack 🍬 

The joke only works if it lands. And it only lands if you know your audience. When you do, even something ridiculous can sell.

5. Portland Leather Goods

A hot air balloon, but make it a bag.

• Full leather
• Whimsical design
• Limited drop

People thought it was a joke. It wasn’t. The Bagaloon sold out in 38 minutes.

 Snack 🍬 

Sometimes the goal isn’t to make something practical; it’s to make something impossible to ignore.

🎁 TL;DR

April 1st used to be a fake product holiday. Now it’s a real launch window for:

• LTOs
• Collabs
• Superfan drops

The smartest brands didn’t just make people laugh.

They made them shop.

Which do you think played it best?

THE FEED

​Billions in Ecommerce Exits, Raises & Deals: How to Build a Brand Worth Buying​

​Marketer to President: Posh Peanuts’ Jenna Habayeb on Growth & Data​

​Your Step-By-Step Growth Framework With Bryan Cano (True Classic)​

​Anthropic’s Most Powerful AI Is Locked in a Vault​

​Marketing Operators Hotline: New Ad Accounts, Organic & Creators​

The Trends

Curated by the editor of CPG Wire, the five top stories in commerce and DTC.

1. Unilever Acquires Grüns: Everywhere

Unilever agreed to acquire fast-growing gummy vitamin brand Grüns for $1.2B. Founded in 2023 by Chad Janis, Grüns quickly became one of the largest players in the U.S. greens supplement category.

By 2025, the company surpassed $300M in ARR and its valuation reached $500M. Investors in Grüns include Selva Ventures, Sugar Capital, Headline, and several others. Unilever recently divested its enormous food division in order to focus on beauty, wellness, and personal care.

2. Cadootz! Closes $3M Round: PR Newswire

Children’s snack brand Cadootz! closed a $3M seed round led by Selva Ventures. Kiva Dickinson, the founder of Selva Ventures, is also a co-founder of Cadootz! alongside Rachel Mansfield and Jordan Carpenter.

Cadootz! launched earlier this year with a line of better-for-you crackers that sold out in less than two hours. The company is gearing up to launch at a major nationwide retailer in two months.

3. MUSH Expands Retail Presence: PR Newswire

After surpassing $100M in retail sales in 2025, MUSH just expanded its retail presence with two key partners. The ready-to-eat overnight oats brand launched at nearly every Starbucks coffeehouse across the US.

MUSH is now prioritizing the convenience channel and will launch nationwide at 7-Eleven later this month. Since launching in 2015, MUSH has sold more than 200 million cups.

4. Sprinter Appoints New CEO: Food Dive

Sprinter, the canned cocktail brand that Kylie Jenner launched in 2024, recently appointed Jay Hunter as CEO. Prior to joining Sprinter, Hunter spent more than five years at MaryRuth’s, finishing his tenure as Chief Revenue Officer.

Sprinter expanded into the wellness category with a beauty-focused hydration line last week, and based on this hire, Sprinter’s future is in wellness, not alcohol.

5. Froot Pops Closes 7-Figure Round: Instagram

Froot Pops, a UK-based purveyor of chocolate-covered frozen fruit, secured £1.1M in seed funding. Justin King, the former CEO of Sainsbury’s, and Giles Brook, a prolific consumer investor, participated in the round alongside Lior Shiff, Active Partners, and Graph Ventures.

Froot Pops was founded in 2024 by husband-and-wife team Ana Martins and Mark Jones. The brand retails at Morrisons, Ocado, Zapp, and 200+ independent stores.

 Inventory Tutorial + Template 

I couldn’t believe the response to last week’s newsletter about inventory “flows” by Abir Syed.

It was one of our most read of the year. A bunch of you wrote back asking if all of his charts and steps had a spreadsheet to go with them. Good news!

Abir gave us permission to share his Inventory Flows Template (Google Sheet) + made a video on how to use it.

If you find it helpful, be sure to say thanks to Abir in the YouTube comments, on Twitter (X), or on LinkedIn.

With thanks and anticipation,
Aaron Orendorff
Chief Executive Officer

P.S. (Disclaimer): Special thanks to Saras Analytics for sponsoring today’s newsletter.

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