📊 Steven Rekuc shares incrementality benchmarks by channel + a Sheet template

🛠️ Connor MacDonald reveals why 82% of shoppers abandon cart + how to fix it

🤑 Connor Rolain asks if mobile-game ads are incremental for HexClad + answers

Along with the top-five headlines in consumer news + a huge announcement from our new boss 🤓

(So many “pluses” this time!)

Steven Rekuc Director of Data, CTC

Incrementality Spread by Channel + Which to Test First

Every ad platform tells a story about how much revenue it’s driving. But, how much of that story is true?

That’s what incrementality answers.

At Common Thread Collective, we’ve run incrementality tests across hundreds of millions in ad spend.

We compiled our data and noticed channel-specific patterns.

Some channels consistently over-report their impact … and others do the exact opposite.

Here’s what we learned + where you should start testing.

 The Incrementality Multiplier 

First off, we use a metric called the “incrementality multiplier” (a.k.a. “incrementality factor”) to indicate the percentage of revenue a channel drives compared to what it reports.

We calculate this with iROAS vs. pROAS:

iROAS from the test​
Incremental Revenue ÷ Spend

pROAS during the test​
Platform-Reported ROAS

For example, if a channel reports a 4x pROAS, but your incrementality test shows a 3x return, the incrementality multiplier is 75%.

In other words, the channel is driving 75% of what it reports.

Anything above 100% means the platform is underreporting its impact.

Here’s the incrementality multiplier breakdown for every channel, from all of our tests.

 Meta Acquisition 

Meta is the most popular and most scalable paid channel for our brands, and it generally performs well in incrementality tests. But the spread is significant.

Some brands see multipliers well above 100%; others land meaningfully below.

If you haven’t tested Meta, it should be near the top of your list because it’s where most brands spend the majority of their budget.

Plus, the March 18th attribution change may have shifted results for brands that tested before.

 Google Non-Brand 

Google Non-Brand search tends to show lower incrementality multipliers than Meta Acquisition.

This makes intuitive sense.

Someone searching for your product on Google already has high purchase intent. Many of these conversions would have happened without the ad, which means the platform is claiming credit it didn’t fully earn.

 YouTube 

YouTube generally lands below 100% as well, which fits its role as a top-of-funnel channel for most brands.

That said, we’ve seen outliers where YouTube significantly outperforms what it reports.

Our best explanation?

Ads served on YouTube TV or consumed on one device while the conversion happens on another (i.e., scenarios where platform attribution loses the thread).

Because of this wide range, we recommend testing YouTube soon after you start investing in it.

 AppLovin (Axon) 

AppLovin has been the standout. Across every incrementality test we’ve run, the multiplier has come in above 100%, meaning the platform has consistently underreported its true impact.

The likely driver is AppLovin’s 1-day click attribution window, which is conservative enough that real conversions sometimes fall outside of it.

 Where Should You Start Testing? 

If you haven’t run incrementality tests before, the number of channels and the cost of testing can be overwhelming.

You can’t test everything at once.

We recommend prioritizing channels by the width of the expected revenue range.

Here’s what I mean.

If we combine our incrementality multiplier for a specific channel with your platform-reported revenue, we can determine the true range of revenue that channel is driving — in dollars, not just %.

The channel with the biggest dollar spread in incremental uncertainty is where a test will pay for itself the fastest.

​We’ve built a Google Sheet you can “make a copy” of to guide you. Here’s how to use it (step-by-step) …

1️⃣ Plug in Platform Revenue

Use the same time period for each channel, ideally over a season that provides a good representation of spend volume for your brand.

2️⃣ Get Incrementality Benchmarks

The spreadsheet will then apply the distribution of incrementality multipliers from our test results to estimate a range of true revenue for each channel.

3️⃣ Prioritize by Range

The channel with the biggest dollar spread between lower band and upper band is where uncertainty costs the most, and where an incrementality test will provide the fastest ROI for your brand.

Test it. Then test the next channel on your list.

The goal isn’t to test everything at once; it’s to reduce uncertainty, increase confidence in true channel impact, and make better decisions.

Steven Rekuc holds the keys to an absurd amount of data on DTC brands. He is the Director of Data at Common Thread Collective. Connect with him on LinkedIn.

Connor MacDonald CMO, Ridge

82% of Shoppers Have Abandoned Cart For This Reason

Brands lose $18B every year in abandoned carts; that’s the lowest estimate I could find.

For example, Postscript just released its report on conversational commerce with responses from over 1,000 shoppers + 840 operators.

They found that 82% of consumers have abandoned a purchase because they couldn’t get a question answered fast enough.

Most brands know there’s an opportunity here.

So why don’t we fix it?

Usually, it’s because we don’t have the right:

• System
• Tool
• Or data

The good news is, Postscript’s report reveals what shoppers expect, how top DTC operators are improving their response times, and the tech stack that makes it possible.

It’s 100% free.

THE FEED

​Recent Ecommerce Deals: Is Now the Time to Sell or Build?​

​Mike’s Story, From Yeti Knockoff to Building New Brands​

​Why Your Meta Campaigns Are Stuck Targeting the Same People & How to Fix It​

​How Smart DTC Brands Turn Returns Into a Marketing Advantage​

The Trends

Curated by the editor of CPG Wire, the five top stories in commerce and DTC.

1. All Things Raises Nearly $5M: Fitt Insider​

All Things, a UK-based challenger brand in the dairy category, closed a $4.9M funding round led by The Equity Studio. Founded in 2023 by chef Thomas Straker and growth marketer Toby Hopkinson, All Things has become the fastest-growing dairy brand in the UK.

Though originally known for its viral craft butter range, All Things expanded into the cottage cheese category earlier this year, positioning itself as a disruptive dairy platform.

2. Collab Fund Raises $250M for New Strategy: Collab Fund​

New York-based investment firm Collaborative Fund secured $250M for Collab Holdings, a new private equity vehicle.

According to founder Craig Shapiro, Collab Holdings is a landing spot for consumer brands that have great products, fanatical customers, and healthy margins, but aren’t on the path to a major exit or IPO. The firm aims to acquire significant minority stakes in two companies this year.

3. White Claw Owner Buys Cocktail Brand: The Spirits Business​

The Mark Anthony Group of Companies, the owner of White Claw and several other bev alc brands, acquired The Finnish Long Drink for $325M. Founded in 2018 by several Finnish friends and American entrepreneur Evan Burns, The Finnish Long Drink is one of the fastest-growing canned cocktail brands in the U.S.

The company shipped 3.3 million cases in 2025 and generated $107.2M in sales through tracked channels. Several other canned cocktail brands like Monaco, BeatBox, and Dirty Shirley exited over the past 5 months.

4. Suja Life Files for IPO: Food Dive​

Suja Life, a vertically integrated producer of wellness shots and cold-pressed juices, will list on the NYSE under the ticker SUJA.

Founded in 2012 and based in Southern California, Suja Life generated $327M in revenue in 2025. The better-for-you beverage company owns Suja Organic, Vive Organic, and Slice Soda. Suja Life will raise up to $100M when it goes public.

5. Lucille Closes Round to Disrupt Senior Nutrition: Nutra Ingredients​

Lucille closed a multimillion-dollar funding round led by IRIS Ventures. New Fare Partners, Able Partners, and Great Circle Ventures also participated in the round. Lucille aims to disrupt senior nutrition with its high-protein, high-fiber shake range.

Adults over 65 make up nearly 20% of the U.S. population, yet only 1% of food & beverage innovation focuses on seniors. Lucille was founded by HBS alum Jess Haghani in 2025.

Connor Rolain Head of Growth, HexClad

Are Mobile-Gaming Ads Incremental?

One of the channels I’m most excited to scale throughout 2026 is Axon by AppLovin.

It powers mobile-game ads, reaching over a billion daily active users across its network.

• Vertical creative
• 35s avg. view time
• Product collections
• Full-screen CTAs

And I’m not the only one who’s bullish.

Bryan Cano (fmr. Head of Marketing at True Classic) recently joined the podcast and shared how excited he is about the platform’s new discovery objective.

We kind of baited him into it with one of Cody Plofker’s predictions for this year, that Axon would unlock prospecting and begin eating into Meta’s share of spend.

However, the biggest concern I hear from performance marketers is that the channel isn’t incremental.

“It just retargets Meta users.”

I wanted to see if that was true for us at HexClad. So, I exported our customer journey data and asked this question.

What we found is that AppLovin retargets Meta users, but not exclusively. In fact, 46% of orders with an AppLovin touchpoint did not have a Meta touchpoint before.

For us, the platform is incremental. We’ve validated this with multiple hold-out tests and Northbeam.

Want to try it out for yourself?

If you create an Axon by AppLovin account and launch your first campaign within 24 hours, the Operators-only code attached to that link will give you $1k in ad credits.

Then, when you spend $5k, you’ll get another $5k in credits … stackable, up to $6k in total.

But, I wouldn’t jump in alone.

Instead, get our channel expansion playbook, online masterclass, and up to $6k in ad credits here …

 Single greatest text of my life … 

And I waited 9 months to say yes.

I am now CEO of The Operators.

Never thought I’d wear that title. Wasn’t even in the realm of possibilities.

Two years ago, almost to the day, Finn Radford DM’d me to ask if I knew anyone who could build the Operators Newsletter:

I told him it would be.

From the newsletter to online events, I got deeper into the mix.

But last July, when Sean asked if I wanted to be CEO … I knew I wasn’t ready. Neither were the Operators.

I came on as Chief Content Officer in Sep. It felt safe. Something I knew how to do; something they needed.

Around the same time, Mike Beckham stepped in as interim CEO.

Over the next 6 months, I rode shotgun with one of the greatest living leaders in any industry. He showed me what he was doing, explained why and how, and began handing things over.

Last month, Mike announced to the partners, “I’m ready to transition to board chair and have Aaron step in as CEO.”

My heart leapt.

What’s next? What do I do as CEO?

Don’t f*** it up.

We’re growing the team. We’re launching new shows. We’re developing more partnerships. We’re building new properties. We’re QAing to the hilt.

I’m nothing if not a maniacal, ruthlessly meticulous, attention to detail + quality content person to the core. This is the only CEO role I feel built for.

I have never been more excited, more intimidated, more honored, more humbled, more LFG in my professional existence.

We’re just getting started.

With thanks and anticipation,
Aaron Orendorff
🤓 Chief Executive Officer

P.S. (Disclaimer): Special thanks to Postscript and Axon by AppLovin for sponsoring today’s newsletter.

​Read online | Unsubscribe​